![]() ![]() Heightened Vulnerability and the Effects of the Drought We also present evidence that the circulation anomalies associated with the recent drought are consistent with model projections of human-induced climate change and aridification in the region and are less consistent with patterns of natural variability. If correct, this has increased the severity and frequency of occurrence of extreme multiyear droughts such as the recent one. We also show that climate models simulate a long-term drying trend for the region as a consequence of human-induced climate change. We then use observations and climate models to assess how unusual the drought was within the observed record and the reasons it was so severe. Characterizing risk as the product of vulnerability and hazard severity, we first analyze Syria’s vulnerability to drought and the social impacts of the recent drought leading to the onset of the Syrian civil war. The most significant consequence was the migration of as many as 1.5 million people from rural farming areas to the peripheries of urban centers ( 3, 4). The drought exacerbated existing water and agricultural insecurity and caused massive agricultural failures and livestock mortality. Analyses of observations and model simulations indicate that a drought of the severity and duration of the recent Syrian drought, which is implicated in the current conflict, has become more than twice as likely as a consequence of human interference in the climate system.īeginning in the winter of 2006/2007, Syria and the greater Fertile Crescent (FC), where agriculture and animal herding began some 12,000 years ago ( 1), experienced the worst 3-year drought in the instrumental record ( 2). Furthermore, model studies show an increasingly drier and hotter future mean climate for the Eastern Mediterranean. No natural cause is apparent for these trends, whereas the observed drying and warming are consistent with model studies of the response to increases in greenhouse gases. There has been also a long-term warming trend in the Eastern Mediterranean, adding to the drawdown of soil moisture. Precipitation changes in Syria are linked to rising mean sea-level pressure in the Eastern Mediterranean, which also shows a long-term trend. ![]() We show that the recent decrease in Syrian precipitation is a combination of natural variability and a long-term drying trend, and the unusual severity of the observed drought is here shown to be highly unlikely without this trend. For Syria, a country marked by poor governance and unsustainable agricultural and environmental policies, the drought had a catalytic effect, contributing to political unrest. Before the Syrian uprising that began in 2011, the greater Fertile Crescent experienced the most severe drought in the instrumental record. ![]()
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